This report provides a high-level assessment of the higher-order transit corridors identified in Official Plan Map 4 Higher Order Transit Corridors in order to provide a comprehensive policy context for on-going discussions on individual transit projects. The report responds to several motions from Council regarding advancing specific proposed higher-order transit projects: Finch LRT west extension to Woodbine GO Station, Waterfront West LRT, and western and eastern extensions to the Sheppard Subway. The report recommends further work to update Map 4 to establish a future transit network plan to respond to Toronto's growth. The analysis in this report is framed in the context of several considerations and challenges that will shape recommendations on advancing higher-order transit development over the coming decade and beyond. The Official Plan emphasizes the importance of maintaining and expanding a strong transit network to support the growth and development of the city and seeks to encourage more movement by transit and active transportation. Transit plays an important role in increasing access to education, employment, and other opportunities city-wide. Increasing transit use helps the City to address its climate change objectives and be more inclusive. Developing complete communities around transit stations and corridors, with higher density employment and residential development, supports the City's housing, economic, and social development objectives. Several trends, considerations and challenges shape the context in which this assessment of Map 4 is framed: 1. Fiscal gap: The City has a recognized large budget shortfall and unfunded transit capital program. Given the need to prioritize State of Good Repair in the existing system and high construction costs of higher-order transit, further comprehensive preliminary planning analysis of a range of projects is required to develop a strong evidence base upon which Council can decide which projects would deliver the best value for money. 2. Housing and homelessness crisis: The price of housing is a widespread issue affecting Toronto and all of Canada. This is compounded by mismatches in the locations of higher population densities and higher-order transit — there are many areas composed primarily of single-family homes near existing high-order transit and conversely, areas with high population densities that are not as well served by higher-order transit, where residents have poorer transit access to employment and other opportunities. There is a historic trend of changing income distribution within Toronto with less affluent areas of the city shifting from being primarily downtown and near Lake Ontario to Toronto suburbs with poorer transit service. High house prices typically found around higher-order transit highlight the potential for transit-induced displacement when building higher-order transit. 3) Strong population and employment growth trends: Toronto is mandated by the Province to plan for roughly 30% growth between 2016 and 2051 but may exceed this target. A growing population may reinforce existing challenges and further increase the need for more space-efficient transportation such as transit. The current auto and transit transportation infrastructure will not adequately support the anticipated population growth. 4) Growing inequity: The COVID-19 pandemic, housing affordability and an overflowing shelter system have highlighted a growing gap where more people are struggling to meet basic needs. The analysis in this report uses new measures based on the concept of transport poverty to measure equity impacts of higher-order transit projects. 5) Climate emergency: To address a climate emergency, Council committed to reaching net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Toronto by 2040. A large shift to more people taking trips using transit and active modes of transportation is essential to meet this target. 6) Increasing crowding and congestion in the transportation system: Using ridership data provided by the TTC, there are many corridors not currently on Official Plan Map 4 that carry large numbers of riders on buses. Many surface transit corridors in the City experience very slow travel speeds, likely due to operating in mixed heavy traffic conditions. These analyses show the need to improve transit conditions in many parts of the City and not just along a small handful of corridors. Staff evaluated 20 corridors on Official Plan Map 4 supplemented by four additional corridors with high transit ridership using the Rapid Transit Evaluation Framework (RTEF) established in the Official Plan. The evaluation does not cover new corridors being designed and constructed by Metrolinx nor the City's priority transit projects – the Waterfront East LRT and the Eglinton East LRT – as these projects are already advancing. As this work focuses on longer-term higher order transit, corridors that were part of RapidTO: Surface Transit Network Plan were not excluded. The focus is on how the range of corridors identified on Map 4 would augment the network of existing and under-development corridors, and guide future decision making. Metrolinx is currently undertaking an Initial Business Case examining Line 4 extensions both westwards to Sheppard West Station and eastwards to McCowan Road. This report recommends that City staff engage with Metrolinx in this project to advance City interests along this important corridor. The Sheppard corridor between McCowan Road and Morningside Avenue is also being considered as part of the Eglinton East LRT, one of the City's priority projects. Metrolinx is also delivering the Finch West LRT and the new Woodbine GO Station. This report notes the value of planning for the extension of the Finch LRT, initially to Woodbine and then further to connect to Pearson Airport, and recommends the City urge the Provincial government to include planning for this important LRT connection in its work. Given that many of the top corridors in this evaluation are not included in Official Plan Map 4 and that Map 4 does not establish priorities, this report recommends a further comprehensive evaluation of this map to identify new corridors required to respond to demand, to review existing proposed corridors to ensure that they should remain on Map 4, and to propose priorities for advancing higher-order transit corridors. Given that most of the top corridors in this report were light rail transit or bus rapid transit, staff also recommend a review of Official Plan Map 3 Right of Way Widths Associated with Existing Major Streets to ensure that adequate right-of-way is protected for future surface higher-order transit corridors identified on a revised Official Plan Map 4. This report recommends advancing surface transit priority measures, such as through the RapidTO: Surface Transit Network Plan. Surface transit priority measures are lower cost than new higher-order transit lines and can be delivered in the short-to-medium-term to help alleviate crowding and congestion on the transit system, support climate change goals by encouraging more travel on transit, better serve areas in the city with higher proportions of equity-deserving people and support a growing population while remaining mindful of the City's financial situation. Higher-order transit planning can be started alongside implementation of these measures to support further long-term growth. Finally, the correlation between housing prices and proximity to higher-order transit within Toronto is clear. Given the housing affordability crisis within the city, the relationship between housing prices and the proximity to transit, and the City's objective of building complete communities around transit, this report also recommends further work to identify ways to better link the City's desired transit and housing outcomes.
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